Manchester City to Win
Over 2.5 Goals
Real Madrid to Commit 13 or more Fouls
Real Madrid to have 4 or more Shots on Target
Under 8.5 Corners
All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.
The latest football odds are on PaddyPower.com now
Man City v Real Madrid
Champions League match at the Etihad Stadium, Manchester
TV: TNT Sports, Wednesday, 8pm
Manchester City to Win
There are plenty of signs that Manchester City are beginning to hit their trademark end-of-season form. Pep Guardiola’s side showed no signs of slipping up like their title rivals when swatting Luton aside on Saturday afternoon, while they overcame early setbacks against both Aston Villa and Crystal Palace to record convincing victories on both occasions.
Like last season, City came away from a first-leg encounter at the Bernabeu with a draw following an entertaining game of football. Like last season, they should have enough to see the job through on home turf.
It may not be as comprehensive as the devastating 4-0 win that City enjoyed last season, but City are a juggernaut at this stage of the season and should overpower Real Madrid on Wednesday night.
Real have lost on each of their last three visits to the Etihad, conceding ten goals in the process. It felt like they had to bring a lead to Manchester if they were to have any hope of exacting revenge for last season.
Over 2.5 Goals
Real went out with a whimper following a 4-0 defeat at the Etihad in last season’s semi-final second leg, but they should at least score on this occasion, especially seeing as they did so on three occasions last week.
They have scored 21 goals in the Champions League so far, the second-highest tally of any club in the competition, and they are certainly capable of causing problems for a City defence that has not always been watertight.
City have conceded in each of their last four games against Luton, Real, Villa, and Palace, conceding seven goals in that four-game spell. At the other end, there is little doubt that they will find the back of the net, and they will probably do so on several occasions.
Guardiola’s side have the peculiar record of scoring exactly three goals in each of their nine Champions League game to date, making them the top scorers in the competition. They have also scored an impressive 16 goals in their last four games at a rate of four per game.
Six of the last seven meetings between Real and City have involved at least three goals. Wednesday’s game should be no different.
Real Madrid to Commit 13 or more Fouls
Real Madrid’s average of 9.8 fouls per game is among the lowest in the competition, but they had not faced any teams near City’s level before last week’s first leg. Carlo Ancelotti’s side committed 11 fouls at the Bernabeu last week, with City controlling 62% of the ball.
The English side are likely to control even more possession on Wednesday, with Real defending deep and looking to hit City on the counter.
That type of strategy naturally risks conceding a high number of fouls, with Real looking to break up the City attack before it builds up a head of steam.
Real Madrid to have 4 or more Shots on Target
Real proved last week that they have the weaponry to hurt this somewhat vulnerable City defence. Ancelotti’s side hit the target five times at the Bernabeu last week and probably should have done so on several other occasions, with Vinicius Junior and Jude Bellingham both missing the target when they should have at least tested the goalkeeper.
City have conceded in all but one of their Champions League games this season, conceding 12 goals in the nine games so far. There is clearly a vulnerability in their defence and Real will have to exploit that if they are to cause an upset on Wednesday.
Under 8.5 Corners
Despite enjoying a huge amount of possession last week, City only won two corners in the Bernabeu. They enjoy by far the highest average possession in the competition, enjoying a whopping 70.1% in an average 90 minutes.
They also attempt more shots than any other team, averaging over 20 per game. However, that does not appear to translate into a high number of corners.
City have not won more than six corners in any European game this season, apart from a 3-1 win over Crvena Zvezda in their opening game of the Champions League when they won 12 corners after laying siege to the opposition goal when the Serbian side took a shock lead. They have only won 32 corners in their previous eight Champions League outings at a rate of four per game.
It wouldn’t be hugely surprising to see them win a similar amount on Wednesday night, while Real are unlikely to be in City’s half enough to win a substantial number of corners.
Manchester City to Win
Over 2.5 Goals
Real Madrid to Commit 13 or more Fouls
Real Madrid to have 4 or more Shots on Target
Under 8.5 Corners
All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.
WEDNESDAY’S FOOTBALL TIPS
READ MORE
The latest football odds are on PaddyPower.com now
THE PADDY POWER GUIDE TO SAFER GAMBLING – EVERYTHING YOU NEED TO KNOW
